u/NoMilk2281

The author claims Hertz has transformed since its 2020 bankruptcy, citing lower depreciation per unit, record utilization, higher revenue per unit, and over $1 billion in cash that reduce near-term bankruptcy risk. The causal improvement comes from used-car sales generating about $2,000 more per car than auction sales, debt maturities pushed to 2030, and Bill Ackman's backing, while Ackman reportedly believes tariffs and trade wars could raise used-car values and asset value. Catalysts include upcoming earnings, which the author does not expect to move the stock due to slow winter travel, and a hoped-for $1 billion EBITDA target for 2027 that the author thinks may be reached by 2028. The main stated risk is Hertz's high corporate debt, including roughly $500+ million in annual interest expense, court liability to old bondholders, and the need to refinance.

The author argues Target is a strong value play with $100B in annual revenue trading at a P/E of 13, despite recent revenue declines. They see the end of the Ulta partnership in August as positive because it lets Target expand its own beauty department, as shown by adding 3,000 products, and note significant growth runway versus Walmart's $400B+ US revenue. The stated risk is Target's elevated debt of around $15 billion.

Copart maintains a competitive moat through extensive land ownership and zoning permissions that rivals cannot easily replicate. The company is expanding into the 'blue car' clean-title market to diversify revenue and mitigate risks associated with lower total-loss rates. With a strong cash position and high profit margins, the company is well-positioned for future growth despite current valuation concerns.