Results from pivoting an LLM from "Price Action Reader" to "Macro-Regime Detector" (Polymarket + News Sentiment)

Hi everyone, I’ve been lurking here for a long time. My background is pretty standard for this sub: started with MT4/MQL4 spaghetti code a decade ago, moved to C#, and eventually bridged into Binance futures and Forex via custom APIs. I wanted to share a specific failure and a subsequent pivot that yielded interesting data, hoping to spark a discussion on **regime detection**. **The Failure: Direct LLM Trading** Like many, I recently tried to use local LLMs via OpenClaw to "read" price action. **Hypothesis:** An LLM can interpret raw OHLC sequences or visual patterns better than hard-coded logic. **Result:** Absolute failure. The LLM hallucinated patterns in noise and couldn't handle the math/sequences reliably. **The Pivot: The "Reality Gap"** I stripped the LLM of trade execution authority and repurposed it for **Data Synthesis** only. I built a scraper pipeline that feeds it: 1. **Prediction Market Odds (Polymarket):** To capture where "real money" is betting. 2. **News Sentiment:** To capture the media narrative. 3. **Bond Yields / VIX:** Standard macro inputs. I programmed the agent to look specifically for **divergence** between these data points (e.g., Media Sentiment is "Extreme Fear", but Prediction Markets show whales hedging Long). **Current Hybrid Setup on Hyperliquid:** * **Execution:** Hard-coded Pinbar logic (PineScript rewriten into Python) handles the trigger. * **Filter:** The LLM sets the "Regime" (Risk-On / Risk-Off) based on the divergence data. [Original pine script pinbar indicator](https://preview.redd.it/d5lyzbop7ckg1.png?width=2110&format=png&auto=webp&s=dcdb31541fc2b8daf5355ab0a458ec77f42c21dc) **The Findings:** The bot is currently hovering around break-even (execution lag is still an issue), BUT the "Regime Signal" generated by the LLM has shown a surprisingly high correlation with mid-term reversals, filtering out bad pinbar setups that my old script would have taken. **Question for the community:** Has anyone else successfully used LLMs solely for **weighting** existing indicators rather than generating signals? I'm trying to figure out if I should double down on this "Macro Sentiment" filter or if it's just overfitting recent volatility. Cheers.