Kept getting chopped up in US500 — then I checked the Efficiency Ratio. Here's what 68K bars show.
u/Past_Lime_176 ·
Reddit — r/algotrading
· February 17, 2026 at 17:11
· ⬆ 21 pts
· 💬 16 comments
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I was running the same momentum setup across all conditions. Some months I'd crush it, others I'd give back 3 months of gains in 2 weeks.
Blamed "market manipulation" until I actually measured what market I was trading in.
**What I found:**
Markets are in choppy/ranging mode 63% of the time. Not 30%. Not 40%. Two-thirds of your trades happen in conditions that shred trend strategies.
**The test:**
Same entry signals. Same exits. Only difference: position sizing based on Efficiency Ratio regime.
Always momentum: 0.30x return (-70%), Sharpe -0.51, drawdown -71%
ER Regime-Aware: 2.78x return (+178%), Sharpe 0.68, drawdown -20%
**The rules (simple):**
* ER > 0.6 + ER50 > 0.5 → Full momentum size
* ER < 0.3 -> Mean reversion mode or sit out
* Between 0.4-0.7 -> Half size, careful
**The kicker:**
Strong trends (ER > 0.7) only happen 0.5% of the time in my data. I was betting on black swans with full size.
Now I know when I'm fishing in the wrong pond.
**Caveat:** Doesn't work everywhere. Tested on EUR/USD (works) and Gold (fails). Asset matters.
**Question:**
Do you adapt position size to market regime? Or run the same strategy regardless of conditions?