I ran STATS about Market Structure (BoS & ChoCh)
u/Money_Horror_2899 ·
Reddit — r/algotrading
· February 16, 2026 at 14:00
· ⬆ 57 pts
· 💬 29 comments
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Summary
The author, u/Money_Horror_2899, conducted a large-scale statistical analysis of "Break of Structure" (BoS) and "Change of Character" (ChoCh), concepts popular in SMC/ICT trading methodologies.
The study covered the German DAX index from 2008-2025 across multiple timeframes (1m, 5m, 1h, 4h) and found that the statistical outcomes were surprisingly consistent across other assets like NQ, BTC, Gold, and Natural Gas, suggesting fractal price behavior.
Quality assessment: This is well-researched quantitative analysis. The author is using a large dataset (3 million+ structures) to test specific, defined trading concepts. While it's not a complete strategy, it's a rigorous investigation into the underlying mechanics of a popular trading style, moving it from anecdotal evidence to statistical data.
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I ran a new statistical analysis on **Break of Structure (BoS)** and **Change of Character (ChoCh)** using **German DAX** on **multiple timeframes (1min, 5min, 1h and 4h)**, covering data from 2008 to 2025. These concepts are widely referenced by SMC and ICT traders, so I was curious to see the math behind it.
For a level to count as a Swing High or Swing Low, the high (or low) had to remain unbroken by the 2 candles on each side. I tested alternative values as well, but the overall results didn’t change in any significant way.
**FUN FACT**: the statistics are almost identical when applying the same logic to NQ, BTC, Gold and even Natural Gas, on the same timeframes. This strongly suggests that price action behaves in a fractal manner, regardless of the asset or timeframe.
In total, my dataset includes over 3 million structures.
Here are the results for German DAX (images attached).
**Next step for me**: see how retracements within the market structure affect these stats. For example, if we have retraced 50% of the current range, what are the odds that we'll see a BoS?
Let me find that out soon! :D