Alphabet is about to be LEAPFROGGED by Meta in AI

AI Summary

Post argues Meta's upcoming open-weight Avocado and VL-JEPA-based Mango models plus a likely OpenClaw acquisition will let Meta leapfrog Alphabet and OpenAI in AI, making Meta undervalued and Alphabet slightly overpriced.

META — LONG The author argues Meta is about to leapfrog Alphabet and OpenAI in AI because its Avocado model is open-weight (adaptive rather than brute-force like Gemini/ChatGPT) and its Mango world model is trained on real Meta Ray-Ban video and audio. He sees the public release of Avocado and Mango plus a likely OpenClaw acquisition — 'Avocado the BRAIN, Mango the EYES and EARS, and OpenClaw the HANDS' — as the catalyst that re-rates Meta upward. Meta is explicitly called undervalued today because the market has given it 'ZERO RESPECT' in the AI conversation; the stated counterpoint is that the AI arms race will continue.

Currently Meta is undervalued and Alphabet might be slightly overpriced largely due to them being the perceived AI front runner.

GOOGL — AVOID The author claims Alphabet's AI leadership is a perception that has left the stock slightly overpriced, and that Meta's upcoming open-weight Avocado model is architecturally superior to Alphabet's fixed-weight, brute-force Gemini. He expects the market narrative to swing and chop Alphabet's multiple down while raising Meta's. No specific timeframe is given beyond the upcoming Meta model releases, and he frames the AI arms race as continuing rather than ending.

Obviously you’ll see the fickle market narrative swing again this time chopping Alphabets multiple down while raising Metas.

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It’s surprising this isn’t being talked about more. What happened to Google, then OpenAI, is about to happen to Google again but this time by Meta. Meta has gotten ZERO RESPECT in the AI conversation but that’s soon about to change with their public release of their Avocado and Mango AI models. There’s a huge difference in Metas Avocado model vs Alphabets Gemini and OpenAIs ChatGPT. Avocado is OPEN WEIGHT. It’s TTT Whereas Gemini and ChatGPT are fixed weight and TTC. Practically what this means is Gemini and OpenGPT answers questions using brute force which can take longer. Avocado actually thinks and adapts to get the answer because its weights are open. Avocado will be the closest model yet to AGI and it’s highly likely that when it’s released it will score at 85% on the ARC-AGI 2 benchmark with human baseline being 85%. Mango will be a real world model based on VL-JEPA architecture, a significant upgrade from Alphabet and OpenAIs models. The difference is Mango is actually trained with Meta Ray Ban video and audio input. That is the difference. The other video models aren’t trained using real images or videos like Mango. 

Now to the cherry on top to connect everything in and out of Metas ecosystem: OpenClaw. That’s right, OpenClaw. Meta is currently in talks to acquire OpenClaw and they will likely succeed in doing so. This will bring an agent to Metas ecosystem to connect EVERYTHING. Think of it like this, Avocado the BRAIN, Mango the EYES and EARS, and OpenClaw the HANDS. 

How this plays out in the market? Obviously you’ll see the fickle market narrative swing again this time chopping Alphabets multiple down while raising Metas. Currently Meta is undervalued and Alphabet might be slightly overpriced largely due to them being the perceived AI front runner. This is about to change. Leaks show Metas models will like outperform Alphabets and OpenAIs models and OpenClaw just brings it all together. Of course, the AI arms race will continue but the next leg of this race belongs to Meta, who most have discarded. 

Ideas

u/Tallwhitedude123 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Meta AI models to re-rate undervalued stock

The author argues Meta is about to leapfrog Alphabet and OpenAI in AI because its Avocado model is open-weight (adaptive rather than brute-force like Gemini/ChatGPT) and its Mango world model is trained on real Meta Ray-Ban video and audio. He sees the public release of Avocado and Mango plus a likely OpenClaw acquisition — 'Avocado the BRAIN, Mango the EYES and EARS, and OpenClaw the HANDS' — as the catalyst that re-rates Meta upward. Meta is explicitly called undervalued today because the market has given it 'ZERO RESPECT' in the AI conversation; the stated counterpoint is that the AI arms race will continue.

u/Tallwhitedude123 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Alphabet multiple to compress as Meta leaps ahead

The author claims Alphabet's AI leadership is a perception that has left the stock slightly overpriced, and that Meta's upcoming open-weight Avocado model is architecturally superior to Alphabet's fixed-weight, brute-force Gemini. He expects the market narrative to swing and chop Alphabet's multiple down while raising Meta's. No specific timeframe is given beyond the upcoming Meta model releases, and he frames the AI arms race as continuing rather than ending.

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Ideas

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