Author argues JD is structurally undervalued even assuming a 50% chance of China invading Taiwan and ADRs being cancelled.
JD — LONG Author argues JD is mathematically undervalued even under the China bear's worst case of a 50% chance of Taiwan invasion and ADR cancellation. Using book value minus intangibles of $45B, normalized FCF of $4B, 5-10% growth and a 20x multiple, they derive ~$80/share fair value versus $27 current, and even a 50% haircut to $40 implies ~50% upside. They note JD completed a $3B buyback, showing capital returns. Main risk is the geopolitical scenario of shares being cancelled, which they explicitly model.
Unless you think chance of war with Taiwan is >75%, chinese stocks like JD are mathematically/structurally undervalued.
This Reddit post, published February 12, 2026, features u/Virtual_Seaweed7130 discussing JD. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: u/Virtual_Seaweed7130 · Tickers: JD