Author argues Meta, Alphabet and Amazon's AI capex surge will temporarily crush free cash flow in 2026 before FCF explodes in 2027-2028, while operating cash flow keeps growing.
GOOGL — LONG The author argues Alphabet's operating cash flow is growing 13-48% annually, showing the underlying business is healthy despite market panic over collapsing free cash flow. The mechanism is that heavy AI infrastructure capex (part of a $1 trillion spend across the three firms FY23-FY26) temporarily depresses FCF in 2026, but FCF should explode in 2027-2028 once capex moderates. The author discloses holding Alphabet. Main risk is the capex surge persisting longer than expected.
Free Cash Flow will crater in 2026 (temporary - because of capex surge)
AMZN — LONG The author argues Amazon's operating cash flow is growing 13-48% annually, indicating the business is healthy despite market fears of collapsing free cash flow. The mechanism is that AI infrastructure capex (part of a $1 trillion spend across the three firms FY23-FY26) temporarily depresses FCF in 2026, but FCF should explode in 2027-2028 once capex moderates. The author discloses holding Amazon. Main risk is the capex surge persisting longer than expected.
I have investment in Alphabet and Amazon and I sold my Meta in 2024
This Reddit post, published February 10, 2026, features u/Sweet-Confection-690 discussing GOOGL, AMZN. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: u/Sweet-Confection-690 · Tickers: GOOGL, AMZN