PYPL — what am I missing? A “very conservative” DCF still gives me ~$91 fair value
u/DoctorVictors ·
Reddit — r/ValueInvesting
· February 10, 2026 at 20:42
· ⬆ 60 pts
· 💬 210 comments
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Hey everyone, I’m looking at **PayPal (PYPL)** and I ran a quick [DCF here](http://insicard.com/start-analysis/PYPL.US?dr=10&rfr=3&pgr=2&tax=20&growth=55&margin=13) using assumptions that (to me) feel quite conservative:
**Inputs I used:**
* **Growth:** **55% in 10 years**
* **Operating margin:** **15.5%** in 10 years
With those inputs, the tool returns a fair value around $91/share.
For context, PYPL is still \~10% of my portfolio. I do believe in the company, but honestly I’m getting nervous seeing it keep drifting down.
What do you think I’m missing? Where would you expect this DCF to break first. Growth, margins/take rate, reinvestment/FCF conversion, competitive risk (Apple Pay / Stripe / Adyen), or something else?
[https://imgur.com/a/jGEZs4F](https://imgur.com/a/jGEZs4F)