Author argues AI agents are fundamentally repricing SaaS/software, eroding moats and subscription revenues, making current dip-buying dangerous across MSFT, CRM, ADBE, TRI, RELX, LZ, and PYPL.
MSFT — AVOID Author argues Microsoft is not a safe haven as it pours unexpected billions into AI infrastructure while Azure growth misses expectations, potentially building its own competition. The causal mechanism is that AI capex is exploding even as cloud growth slows, making the recent 13% five-day drop a correction rather than a dip. The author concedes Microsoft likely won't go broke, which limits the downside, but says the stock was overhyped and its exclusivity markup is eroding.
They just admitted they are pouring more money into AI infrastructure than anyone expected, and for what? Azure's growth is missing expectations. The cloud "revolution" is slowing down while the Capex is exploding. Microsoft dropped 13% in five days. That’s not a "dip", that’s a correction for a company that just realized it might be spending hundreds of billions to build its own competition.
TRI — AVOID Author argues Anthropic's new 'Cowork' AI agent automates legal workflows, contract reviews, and compliance, directly attacking the high-margin moats of Thomson Reuters. The catalyst is the tool's launch, after which Thomson Reuters plummeted 18%. No specific risk to the bearish thesis is stated.
This isn't just another chatbot; it’s an AI agent that automates legal workflows, contract reviews, and compliance; the high-margin bread and butter that companies like Thomson Reuters and RELX have built moats around for decades.
The result? Thomson Reuters plummeted 18%. LegalZoom crashed nearly 20%.
RELX — AVOID Author says RELX's legal and compliance moat is similarly threatened by Anthropic's 'Cowork' AI agent, which automates high-margin legal workflows. The catalyst is the new AI tool's arrival, with Thomson Reuters' 18% plunge cited as evidence of the disruption. No explicit risk to the bearish thesis is provided.
This isn't just another chatbot; it’s an AI agent that automates legal workflows, contract reviews, and compliance; the high-margin bread and butter that companies like Thomson Reuters and RELX have built moats around for decades.
LZ — AVOID Author points to LegalZoom crashing nearly 20% as evidence that AI agents automating legal workflows are disrupting legal services incumbents. The mechanism is the same AI-driven erosion of high-margin legal tasks that also hit Thomson Reuters and RELX. No specific risk or catalyst beyond the AI tool launch is stated.
This isn't just another chatbot; it’s an AI agent that automates legal workflows, contract reviews, and compliance; the high-margin bread and butter that companies like Thomson Reuters and RELX have built moats around for decades.
The result? Thomson Reuters plummeted 18%. LegalZoom crashed nearly 20%.
PYPL — AVOID Author highlights PayPal falling over 20% with a new CEO and disappointing numbers, arguing investors are exiting industries they believe AI is commoditizing. The mechanism is AI-driven commoditization of payments, and the catalyst is the recent earnings/management change. No specific risk to the bearish view is stated.
The PayPal Disaster: Look at PayPal, down over 20%. New CEO? Disappointing numbers? Investors aren't waiting for a "turnaround" anymore. They are exiting industries they think are being commoditized by AI.