Say I am thinking the wicked runup in Precious Metals is overcooked by 35%? Being of the mind that the truth is somewhere in the middle, knowing that when PMs fall, that junior miners often fall 2-3x the percentage the underlying asset falls. I am thinking of buying deep OTM Puts on a basket of junior miners like SILJ or just pick a couple of individual companies. Anyone convinced that this worm will turn? A lot of people have been crushed by governmental and big finance f\*ckery in PMs (a lot of it by any means necessary as proven by lawsuits and jail time).
At retail, I have good info from 3 different states where retail redemption clients outnumber buyers by an 8:1 ratio. In addition, that they are very, very hesitant to take silver at these levels and that when they do? They are only trading out for gold and that they are at least 10% under spot for the silver. aI spoke with one dealer who took several 100 oz bars in this manner and paid 27% under spot on the transaction. Ymmv, but this is from guys I’ve done business with and is reliable, though anecdotal.