Regarding the events in Minneapolis, the Obamas today stated that the President and administration officials seem "eager to escalate the situation" rather than imposing accountability over the federal agents deployed. Several prominent individuals have mentioned the administration is using various crises, perhaps including ICE raids in Minneapolis, Venezuela, Iran, Greenland etc as a distraction from the Epstein files. What if these are instead distractions from the impact of AI on the US economy and financial markets?
While prior technology like the Industrial Revolution replaced human physical labor, AI is in most cases replacing cognitive capability. And while the impact of the steam engine took 60-100 years, AI is expected to have a similar scale of impact in under a decade. I once heard from a consultant that 75% of employees spend 75% of their time in meetings. And purpose of these meetings is simply for humans to align and work together. There’s naturally a great business case for any corporation to eliminate humans in favor of AI. There’s an interesting fictional scenario called AI 2027 written by a former open ai employee with a month by month briefing of how ai will surpass human intelligence - and consequences from that.
So what happens if we have 75% unemployment? The top 1% American earners currently own 32% of wealth. The top 10% drive 50% of consumer spending. Yes AI will likely improve gdp in the future but will also concentrate that prosperity within the wealthy. Those who can continue living on yachts and bunkers in Hawaii. Perhaps these wealthy have already been planning for such an outcome. This was Elon’s response to trumps recent election victory:
“This is what victory feels like! And this was no ordinary victory. This was a fork in the road of human civilization. You know, there are elections that come and go. Some elections are, you know, important, some are not. But this one, this one... this one really mattered." … “future of civilization is assured”
In sharp contrast to his views on trump before his first term:
Just days before the 2016 vote, Musk told CNBC that Trump "doesn’t seem to have the sort of character that reflects well on the United States" and stated plainly, "I think a bit strongly that \[Trump\] is probably not the right guy" for the presidency.”
So what will economics for the bottom 90% in the United States look like? Do you continue to invest in stocks and etfs? Are there other investments to consider? Do you purchase assets in other countries? What types of assets will become more useful? Water? Food? Guns? Some very smart people in this community and I’m looking for your opinions based on your knowledge and experience.