Author argues a 2026 buying opportunity in AMZN, NFLX, MELI, META, and MSFT, using QQQ's trend channel as a macro framework.
AMZN — LONG Author argues Amazon is a profit engine whose operating profit has grown to $76.2B while the stock has not caught up, with AWS revenue at $33.0B (+20% YoY) and $35.1B CapEx filling a $200B backlog. The stated catalyst is AWS dominance and operating profit acceleration despite the "AI Tax" on margins, with a trend target of roughly 46% upside. The main stated risk is bear noise that margins are dead because of the $35B AI spend.
My Take: I’ll gladly pay the "AI Tax" today for AWS dominance tomorrow.
NFLX — LONG Author argues Netflix is a scale monster with 325M paid subscribers (+23M in 2025), $12.05B Q4 2025 revenue (+18% YoY), and 31.5% 2026 operating margin guidance; ad revenue doubled to ~$3B. The catalyst is continued subscriber scaling and margin expansion, with the stock at ~28x forward PE and a V-shape recovery into all-time highs. The stated bear risk is the Warner Bros deal being risky, which the author dismisses.
Moat: 325 Million Paid Subscribers (+23M in 2025 alone).
MELI — LONG Author calls MercadoLibre the top pick, citing 27 consecutive quarters of >30% growth, Q3 2025 revenue of $7.4B (+39% YoY), TPV of $71.2B (+41% YoY), and 77M unique buyers (+26%). The mechanism is fintech and logistics scale, with the margin dip to 9.8% framed as temporary logistics spend mirroring Amazon's winning playbook. The margin dip is the stated risk, which the author frames as temporary.
It’s growing 2x faster than Amazon. The margin dip (to 9.8%) is temporary spend on logistics—the exact same playbook AMZN used to win.
META — LONG Author argues Meta has high risk/reward with ~70% potential upside if it breaks out, because the market is pricing it like an ad agency rather than an AI utility. The catalyst is a breakout and re-rating toward AI infrastructure status.
The market is pricing it like an ad agency, not an AI utility.
MSFT — LONG Author views Microsoft as a safe play with ~18-20% upside target, offering Azure growth without the drama. The mechanism is exposure to Azure's cloud growth.
You get Azure growth without the drama.