Went down the cannabis rabbit hole after rescheduling executive order… here’s my takeaway

Been digging into the cannabis market after the Schedule I → Schedule III move in the U.S. and there’s a lot going on beyond just meme-level hype. Figured I’d share a quick summary for anyone tracking the space. From what I could find across a few industry reports: * Global cannabis revenue in 2026 is estimated around **$45–75B**, with continued growth expected this decade. * The **U.S. market alone could approach \~$47B**, driven by more adult-use states, medical adoption and newer formats (edibles, drinks, etc.). * Cultivation spending globally is rising fast thanks to indoor growing tech and efficiency improvements. * **Cannabis beverages** are still small, but projected to grow several-fold over the next 10 years. 2025 was actually a weird year, U.S. sales dipped slightly for the first time ever but forecasts for 2026+ point back to low-to-mid double-digit growth. In Dec 2025, the U.S. reclassified cannabis from **Schedule I to Schedule III**. It’s not legalization, but it changes a few big things: * Companies may now deduct normal business expenses (removal of IRS **280E** penalty) * Easier access to banking and credit * Fewer barriers for medical research * More confidence for institutional investors That tax piece alone could significantly improve margins for U.S. operators. Most of the big names seem to be focusing on cost control, diversification, and positioning for U.S. regulatory changes. A lot of the sector ran hard late 2025 / early 2026, with some stocks up **100–200% in 6 months**, mostly on rescheduling expectations. Quick snapshot: * **Tilray (TLRY \~$9.11)** – Heavy move into U.S. craft beer, now a top-5 craft brewer. Still no direct U.S. THC sales, but positioned through hemp + beverages. * **Canopy Growth (CGC \~$1.19)** – Rebuilding Canadian ops while clearly prepping for U.S. entry if rules loosen further. Still volatile. * **Aurora (ACB \~$4.37)** – Focused on international medical markets rather than U.S. retail. Some exits from smaller markets to cut losses. * **Cronos (CRON \~$2.73)** – Very cash-heavy, waiting for regulatory tailwinds to deploy capital. Stock popped hard on rescheduling. * **SNDL (\~$1.66)** – Retail + beverage exposure, lots of trading volume, more of a diversified cannabis holding company now. Also worth mentioning **Curaleaf (CURLF)** as a U.S. MSO - they recently posted \~$330M in quarterly revenue and would benefit directly from tax relief. Their stock is up big over the last 6 months. Sector-wide trends seem to be: * consolidation (M&A, partnerships) * focus on premium products / higher margins * trying to survive until regulatory clarity improves ETFs like **MSOS** have been moving with the MSOs, but volatility is still very real. This one came up while I was looking at Canadian companies with export exposure. * **Ticker:** CSE: HERB | OTC: LUFFF * **Market cap:** \~CAD $8–9M * **Price:** \~CAD $0.07 * Up over **100% YoY**, but still micro-cap territory What stood out: * Preliminary 2025 sales **\~$16.5M (+38% YoY)** * Q4 alone **\~$6.2M (+214% YoY)** (partially boosted by a BC retail strike that pushed people online) * Over **40,000 customers**, 350+ products, subscription model launched The notable update this week: They completed their **first 298kg medical cannabis export to Germany**, using an EU-GMP partner in Portugal. Germany is currently: * The **largest medical cannabis market in Europe** * Imported **140+ tonnes in first 9 months of 2025** * Has an annual import quota near **190+ tonnes** Management says more shipments are expected, which could turn into recurring export revenue in 2026 if demand holds. Obviously still high risk (tiny company, competitive market, margins matter), but compared to many penny stocks, at least there’s actual revenue and now international distribution. Feels like the sector is in a transition phase: * Regulatory pressure easing * Companies trying to get leaner and more strategic * Investors pricing in future tax relief more than current profits But 2025 proved demand isn’t invincible, and most of these businesses still aren’t very profitable yet. Curious what others think: * Is this rescheduling rally sustainable, or just another short-term trade? * Anyone holding MSOs, Canadian LPs, or small caps like HERB? * Do you think U.S. legalization actually happens this decade? Not advice, just sharing research. Interested to hear other perspectives.