The Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Transformation 🚀🚀🚀

AI Summary

Author presents a bullish LUNR thesis based on the Lanteris acquisition transforming revenue scale and a potential NASA LTV award catalyst.

LUNR — LONG The author argues LUNR is undervalued because its January 13, 2026 acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems quadrupled pro-forma revenue from $226M to over $850M and vertically integrates satellite buses for its $4.82B NSNS contract. They expect a catalyst from a NASA $4.6B Lunar Terrain Vehicle award expected Q1 2026 and March earnings, with 23% short interest potentially squeezing shares toward a $64.22 DCF-based intrinsic value over a 3-6 month horizon. The main stated risk is that NASA delays or splits the LTV award, causing dilution and cash burn concerns to push the stock toward a $9.50-$12.50 Advent deal floor.

The core investment thesis for Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is based on a massive "valuation gap" between its current market pricing and its new fundamental reality.

Score 11

Comments 12

▶ Full Post Text

Elooo rockets fellas lunatics or whatever, this is my DD for LUNR let me know what you guys reckon, greetings from down under PS I think all rocket companies should launch in down under less gravity pull for rockets to fly ! 

# 1. The Executive Thesis: "The Valuation Disconnect"

The core investment thesis for **Intuitive Machines (LUNR)** is based on a massive "valuation gap" between its current market pricing and its new fundamental reality. Following the **January 13, 2026**, acquisition of **Lanteris Space Systems**(formerly Maxar Space Systems), LUNR has effectively quadrupled its revenue and moved from a high-risk speculative play to a diversified aerospace leader.

# Key Investment Pillars:

* **Revenue Scale:** Pro-forma annual revenue has jumped from **$226M** to over **$850M**.
* **Vertical Integration:** By owning Lanteris, LUNR now builds the satellite buses it once had to outsource, capturing higher margins on its **$4.82B NSNS (Near Space Network)** contract.
* **The "Advent" Floor:** Private equity giant **Advent International** accepted **23 million shares** at a valuation of **$12.34/share** as payment. They are now locked in as a 16% owner, providing institutional stability.

# 2. Comparative Valuation

LUNR is currently the most "undervalued" name in the space sector when measured against its closest peer, **Rocket Lab (RKLB)**.

|Metric (2026 Est.)|**Intuitive Machines (LUNR)**|**Rocket Lab (RKLB)**|
|:-|:-|:-|
|**Annual Revenue**|**$850M - $1B**|\~$800M - $950M|
|**Market Cap**|**\~$3.9 Billion**|\~$48.5 Billion|
|**Price-to-Sales (P/S)**|**\~4x**|**\~55x**|
|**Business Mix**|Lunar, Satellites, Defense|Launch, Satellites, Defense|

Export to Sheets

>

# 3. The Bull Case vs. Bear Case

# Bull Case: "The Squeeze to $65"

* **Catalyst:** NASA awards LUNR the **$4.6B Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV)** contract (expected Q1 2026).
* **Outcome:** A massive "short squeeze" (23% short interest) forces bears to buy back shares simultaneously with institutional "loading."
* **Price Point:** **$64.22** (Intrinsic value based on DCF models for a 2026 "Space Prime").

# Bear Case: "Execution Fatigue"

* **Catalyst:** NASA delays the LTV award or splits it with a competitor (Lunar Outpost).
* **Outcome:** The "dilution" from the Lanteris deal weighs on the stock, and the market ignores the revenue growth in favor of short-term cash burn fears.
* **Price Point:** **$9.50 – $12.50** (Testing the Advent "deal floor").

# 4. Strategic Summary for Your Portfolio

For your **"Hybrid Growth"** strategy, LUNR represents the "Acceleration" phase.

* **Lanteris/Maxar Heritage:** This acquisition provides the **National Security** contracts (Missile Tracking/SDA) that provide the steady cash flow needed to de-risk the volatile moon missions.
* **The 3-6 Month Outlook:** This period is defined by "Binary Events" (LTV Award and March Earnings). High volatility is expected, but the fundamental base of **$1B in revenue** is now a reality.

>

▶ Full Post Text

Ideas

More from Reddit — r/wallstreetbets