chatGPT, regarding Sellas Life Sciences Group (SLS) and the Phase 3 REGAL Trial, answer the following questions...

AI Summary

The author's survival-model analysis of Sellas Life Sciences' Phase 3 REGAL trial argues that the timing of deaths implies the treatment arm is surviving far longer than the historical control median.

SLS — LONG Motorbarge argues that Sellas Life Sciences' Phase 3 REGAL trial event timing is bullish: if only about 10 of the 60 deaths by January 2025 occurred in the treatment arm versus about 50 expected in control, the treatment arm is surviving many years longer than the historical control median. The causal mechanism is that delayed mortality in the treatment arm would imply a strong survival benefit, which could support a positive REGAL outcome for SLS. The catalyst is the trial's event accrual/readout, with 60 deaths reported by January 2025 and 80 not yet reached. The main stated caveat is that the conclusion relies on assumptions of exponential survival, about a 7-month control median, and an October 2023 enrollment midpoint.

the treatment arm is surviving many years longer than the historical control median, which is why the continued absence of events is so informative even without unblinding.

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Below I **repeat each question verbatim** and place the **answer immediately after it**, following your rules on wording (“about” for estimates, “assuming” for assumptions).

**1) How many people were included in the trial?**  
**Answer:** assuming **126 people** were included in the REGAL Phase 3 trial.

**2) How many are in the control group that are untreated?**  
**Answer:** assuming **63 people** were in the control (untreated) group.

**3) What is the median life expectancy of the control group?**  
**Answer:** about **7 months** (commonly cited historical median overall survival for this AML population, with a reasonable range of about 6–8 months).

**4) If the treatment of the treatment group (non control group) had no effect, when would the entire group have had 60 deaths?**  
**Answer:** about **March–April 2024**, assuming exponential survival with a 7-month median and enrollment midpoint around **October 2023**.

**5) When did the entire group actually have 60 deaths?**  
**Answer:** about **January 23, 2025**.

**6) If the treatment had no effect, when would the entire group have reached 80 deaths?**  
**Answer:** about **May–June 2024**, assuming the same 7-month median survival and no treatment benefit.

**7) Have the entire group reached 80 deaths yet?**  
**Answer:** **No**, as of the January 2025 data point discussed, the trial had reported **60 deaths**, not 80.

**8) If the control group had the expected mortality rate, at what date would they have had their proportion of the 60 deaths?**  
**Answer:** about **January 2025**, because under expected mortality the **control arm alone (\~63 patients)** would account for **about 50 deaths** by \~15–16 months after enrollment midpoint.

**9) If the expected number of deaths actually happened in the control group, what is the estimated life expectancy of the treatment group?**  
**Answer:** about **5 years (≈60–65 months) median overall survival**, assuming:

* \~50 of the 60 deaths occurred in the control group,
* only \~10 deaths occurred in the treatment group by January 2025,
* and exponential survival modeling.

# Bottom-line interpretation

Under standard survival assumptions, the **timing gap between expected and observed deaths** implies that the **treatment arm is surviving many years longer than the historical control median**, which is why the continued absence of events is so informative even without unblinding.

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u/Motorbarge Reddit r/stocks

SLS REGAL death timing implies treatment survival far exceeds control

Motorbarge argues that Sellas Life Sciences' Phase 3 REGAL trial event timing is bullish: if only about 10 of the 60 deaths by January 2025 occurred in the treatment arm versus about 50 expected in control, the treatment arm is surviving many years longer than the historical control median. The causal mechanism is that delayed mortality in the treatment arm would imply a strong survival benefit, which could support a positive REGAL outcome for SLS. The catalyst is the trial's event accrual/readout, with 60 deaths reported by January 2025 and 80 not yet reached. The main stated caveat is that the conclusion relies on assumptions of exponential survival, about a 7-month control median, and an October 2023 enrollment midpoint.

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