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Here’s basically how I do investment analysis. Nothing fancy, just a process that I dive in with.
1) Start broad, then shrink the universe
I don’t “pick stocks” from vibes. I screen first.
I’ll use free stuff like Finviz to filter for things like:
* revenue growth (not flatlining)
* profitability (or at least improving)
* not insanely levered
Then I throw the shortlist into a watchlist (Bloomberg free watchlist works, or whatever you like). The goal here is just to build a tight queue of “worth 30 min” ideas, not make decisions.
I’ll also pull a quick one-page overview from whatever data source I have access to (paid or free) just to sanity check:
* past financials
* consensus estimates
* debt situation
* basic “is this company melting down?” signals
2) Understand the business (from actual filings)
If I’m still interested, I build a “ground truth” map from filings.
I read the 10-K (annual report) and the most recent 10-Q on EDGAR, plus whatever the Investor Relations site has.
I’m trying to answer:
* what do they actually sell?
* to who? (customers)
* how do they get paid? (recurring / contracts / seasonal / usage-based)
* what are the segments and geographies?
* who controls their fate? (suppliers, regulators, platform risk)
I keep notes in a simple SWOT-ish format so I don’t lose the thread:
strengths / weaknesses / opportunities / risks
And I keep a running checklist of questions because otherwise you forget the important stuff once you start looking at price charts.
3) Understand the finances (statement by statement)
Then I go through the three statements like a robot:
* Income statement
* Balance sheet
* Cash flow statement
I’ll pull 5/10/15 year history if possible and look for:
* growth consistency (or cyclicality)
* margin structure + trend
* cash conversion (earnings vs real cash)
* balance sheet health (leverage + liquidity)
* dilution / SBC / buybacks
I do common-size statements a lot because it makes changes obvious.
Also: I don’t trust “adjusted” metrics without reading the reconciliation. If they’re excluding “one-time” costs every quarter… that’s not one-time, bro.
Tool-wise: I usually export from Tikr/Koyfin/whatever into Excel and compute ratios + time series there. If you have a template/add-in for automating the boring stuff, it saves so much time.
4) Strategy (forward-looking, not history)
Once the business and numbers make sense, I shift from “what happened” to “what’s the plan.”
I’ll look at:
* strategic priorities (from filings and investor decks)
* capex plans
* capital allocation (buybacks/dividends/acquisitions)
* conference presentations
* earnings calls + transcripts (underrated)
Then I sanity check whether management actually earns good returns over time:
* ROIC / ROCE / ROE over 5–15 year averages Not one year. Long averages.
I also keep a mental checklist for “moat signals” and red flags:
* pricing power vs discounting
* customer concentration
* competitive intensity
* weird accounting
* financial engineering replacing real growth
5) Valuation (only after I get it)
I don’t start with valuation. I end with it.
First I do relative comps:
* P/E
* EV/FCF
* FCF yield
But I compare it to:
* its own history (super useful)
* peer set (obviously)
Then I do a quick DCF, not because DCF is magic, but because it forces the question:
“what growth + margins are already priced in?”
I run it as scenarios:
* base / conservative / optimistic
* and I mess with 2–3 key drivers only
If it’s high quality but expensive, I don’t force it. I just watchlist and wait.
I’ll DCA into the names I’m highest conviction on, but I still care about the price I’m paying.
6) Write the thesis so future-me doesn’t forget
At the end I write a short thesis in bullets:
* what it is / why it wins
* key risks
* valuation view
* what would change my mind
* catalysts (optional)
And I log open questions + what I need to monitor:
* metrics
* upcoming filings
* events/earnings cadence
The goal is being able to re-underwrite fast when headlines hit.
**Example: subscription software**
If I’m looking at a subscription software company, I’ll do something like:
* screen for recurring revenue + profitability
* read 10-K + latest 10-Q to confirm segments and churn / retention drivers
* export to Excel for margin + ROIC + common-size analysis
* compare EV/FCF + FCF yield vs SaaS peers and its own history
* run a conservative DCF with churn, net expansion, and FCF margin scenarios
* if it’s great but multiples are stretched, I’ll just sit on the watchlist until valuation is less insane
Curious how ya'll do yours, any tools or process that is different from above?