Metals are having a moment and I wanted to break down what's actually happening.
**Current prices as of today:**
Gold: $4,670/oz — new all-time high this morning
Silver: $94.51/oz — up 5% just today, another record
Copper: around $5.90/lb, hit $13,310/ton on LME last week
**2025 full year performance:**
Gold: +66% (best year since 1979)
Silver: +150%
Copper: +52%
**2026 so far:**
Gold: +5%
Silver: +20%
Copper: +6%
What's driving this
Few things happening at once.
Policy chaos is the big one. Trump just announced tariffs on eight European countries over the weekend. EU is holding emergency meetings to discuss retaliation. Fed independence has been in question for months. Gold is the classic hedge for this kind of environment.
Silver has a supply squeeze on top of the macro stuff. China implemented export curbs. There's been physical tightness in London with short positions getting blown out. The gold-to-silver ratio dropped to around 50 from 70-100 in recent years. That compression usually means silver is catching up to gold.
Copper is a different story. AI data centers need something like 10x the electrical load of traditional facilities. Green energy transition keeps rolling. And there have been real supply disruptions — deadly accident at a major mine in Indonesia, flooding in Congo. LME inventories keep declining.
Trump deferred tariffs on critical minerals last week which caused copper to pull back a bit from the highs, but the structural story hasn't changed.
**Analyst targets**
UBS: Gold to $5,000, possibly $5,400 if political risk increases
Bank of America: Silver between $135 and $309 (huge range lol)
Goldman: Copper might correct in Q2 but stays bullish longer term
**My take**
When gold, silver, and copper are all hitting records at the same time, that's not random. They're all responding to the same thing — uncertainty and real demand.
Is silver up 150% in a year overdone? Maybe. But the supply constraints are real. I don't have strong conviction on timing here.
**Questions for discussion:**
1. Anyone playing this through miners or sticking with physical/ETFs?
2. What price does silver become a sell?
3. Is the tariff premium already baked in or is there more upside?
**Positions: Small gold position. No silver or copper currently. Thinking about adding on a pullback if we get one.**