Author presents a bullish PayPal thesis with base/bear/bull 5-year projections, arguing international dominance, Venmo monetization, and new growth areas outweigh Apple Pay competition.
PYPL — LONG The author argues PayPal is trusted and dominant outside the US, Venmo is a verb in the US with monetization only beginning, and agentic commerce, ads, and stablecoin offer untapped growth. Competition from Apple Pay is limited because Apple Pay dominates in-person checkout, a small portion of PayPal's business, so multiple players can win. Base case assumes 7% revenue growth, 15% margin, 20 PE, yielding ~19.75% annualized return and a 2031 price of $140.09; bear case 6.33% annualized and bull case 31.47% annualized. Main stated risk is competition potentially killing the business.
Why it will continue to grow: PayPal is trusted and is a dominant factor outside of the US and continues to grow well. Venmo is a verb in the US and they have only began to monetize it. No one is talking about the possible growth with agentic commerce, ads, and stable coin.
This Reddit post, published January 18, 2026, features u/Simple-Ease-7830 discussing PYPL. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: u/Simple-Ease-7830 · Tickers: PYPL