$AMPL to lead AI-driven analytics

Over the past month, I’ve built a decent position in $AMPL (70:30 shares/LEAPs) in anticipation of a major re-rating when the market correctly prices the role AI will play in business analytics. CEO Spenser Skates is way ahead of the curve here and I expect price to catch up. For those that don’t know, Cursor is the fastest growing SaaS business of ALL TIME. Cursor built an IDE (app that engineers use to write code) that has fully integrated LLMs to assist with workflows. It completely transformed software engineering (Claude Code now doing the same). Ironically, data science/analytics have been slower to catch on in this space. Amplitude is building the Cursor of product/business analytics. Bit on the business: product analytics software used by marketing & eng teams to optimize digital products for biz outcomes (e.g., conversion on e-commerce sites, retention in apps). $347M ARR growing 16% Y/Y, 653 enterprise customers ($100K+), net retention just hit 104% (up from 98% a year ago). The thesis: AMPL making a hard push into AI driven analytics which will change the street narrative AND show up at the bottom line. “This is the first analytics product that iteratively queries your data for you and reasons about it to find insights.” In analytics, people are historically limited by what they know they want to track, measure, and test. AI is a massive unlock because it helps you find things you didn’t know you needed to look for. That’s huge for AMPL’s business model because it’s metered — you pay based on events tracked. AI lowers the perceived cost and increases the perceived value of tracking MORE events. Customer mindset shifts from “track what I know I want to understand” to “track everything, I don’t know what I don’t know.” More events = more revenue for AMPL. Rollout sequence is so far logical and shows discipline. They shipped AI infra to GA first (the foundation), then progressed AI Agents from private beta → public beta. Showing velocity & discipline. Management tone is measured and mature. I’m watching Q4 earnings in Feb for validation. Want to hear AI features mentioned with specific adoption metrics. Want to see continued progression from betas to GA. Need NRR and net new ARR to continue to expand. Stock is stuck in a 3 year base from $9-13. IPO in 2021 was $50. Disclosure: I’m long $AMPL, but NFA.