This sub cracks me up, man. Adobe has been getting "disrupted" for three years now. Quarter after quarter, the company prints record ARR, without fail. The bear cases are so predictable, I can write the entire comment thread before I even click.
1. The anecdotal guy, telling us how he used to use Adobe and no longer does.
2. Then we got the guy telling us about how everyone hates Adobe. Right, and they keep increasing prices, and their users pay anyway. Bullish.
3. Then we got the guy talking about how Adobe's growth is slowing. Yeah, no shit, Sherlock. But the business isn't priced for slowing growth right now. It's being priced for disruption. This subs mascot, Costco, is growing slower and trades at 3x the multples of Adobe lmao
4. "Adobe isn't innovating!!!!!" - Bro, they put out an entire conference every year about every new product they've added. This entire year was AI products, literally nothing else.
I don't know what's going to happen with Adobe stock price over the next year, but I do know every quarter this year they will print record ARR. And I know every quarter next year they will print record ARR. 2028? Record ARR.
I bottom-ticked Netflix when everyone on Reddit assured me the business was about to eminently implode. I backed up and loaded up the truck during April last year when people were certain "it's going to get much worse!" And now? I'm posting this for posterity. See you all at $400