Discussion of rumored Sanofi bid for Ocular Therapeutix at ~$30/share framed as a potential Dupixent replacement play versus M&A FOMO.
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Dow Jones / IBD dropped an interesting one today.
Rumors are swirling that Sanofi is preparing a much higher bid for Ocular Therapeutix potentially ~$30/share, up from the $16 offer that OCUL rejected last year when the stock was around $10.50.
Why now?
According to analysts:
Dupixent faces loss of exclusivity in 2031.
Dupixent is massive ~$18B revenue expected in 2025.
Sanofi clearly needs a next blockbuster.
Ocular’s wet AMD / diabetic eye disease program could give Sanofi exposure to a $15B+ neovascular market.
FDA may soon allow single Phase 3 trial approvals, speeding things up
The stock already launched, dumped, and yo-yo’d on the rumor-classic biotech chaos.
Is Sanofi making a strategic, forward-looking move to replace Dupixent, or is this just another case of big pharma overpaying for optionality before clinical readouts?
And if results disappoint… does OCUL get cut in half again?
Would you pay $30/share for Ocular if you were Sanofi?
Is wet AMD the right place to park Dupixent-sized expectations?
Long-term hold or pure event-driven gamble?