ITC's 15% excise-duty crash is analyzed as a likely U-shaped recovery with a volume-growth trigger for buying the dip.
ITC.NS — WATCH The author argues ITC's 15% drop from the excise duty replacing the GST cess resembles the 2017 structural shock, but ITC has a proven playbook of price hikes and cost cuts likely yielding a U-shaped recovery in 6-12 months. He advises not catching the falling knife now and instead monitoring cigarette volume growth after the 15% price hike; if volume drops less than 5%, buy the dip. The main stated risk is smokers quitting or switching to illegal smuggled brands at higher prices.
Watch Volume Growth—if it drops less than 5%, buy the dip.
This Reddit post, published January 14, 2026, features u/vlad7208 discussing ITC.NS. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: u/vlad7208 · Tickers: ITC.NS