USAR: 90% convinced, need a gut check before sizing up

**USAR: 90% convinced, need a gut check before sizing up** Started a small position today at $16.58. Everything says this should be bigger. Talk me out of it. **What they do:** USA Rare Earth owns Round Top Mountain in Texas. Only major domestic deposit of heavy rare earths - dysprosium and terbium. These go into every F-35 (920 lbs per plane), EV motor, wind turbine, missile guidance system. China controls 99% of global heavy rare earth processing. **Why now:** * Trump talking about Greenland for rare earth deposits * China suspended export controls until November 2026. When they come back, this becomes critical infrastructure * Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet facility starts production Q1 2026 * Acquired Less Common Metals for $100M in November - only scaled rare earth metal producer outside China **Numbers:** * $5.56 to $43.98 in 2025, now $16-17. Down 60% from highs * $2.5B market cap. MP Materials is $10B with $400M DoD backing * Pre-revenue, burning $10-15M quarterly, $523M cash * All Buy ratings, average target $23 **Bull case:** * MP got $400M government equity. USAR CEO says "in close communication with administration" * Round Top is 70% heavy rare earths. MP is light rare earths. Different products, both needed * Stillwater revenue starts Q1 2026. First proof they can produce * China export restrictions return November 2026 **Bear case:** * Stillwater was supposed to produce in 2023, now 2026 * 211% dilution in 2025. More coming * MP already operational, profitable, government-backed * No confirmed government money yet **What I need:** Am I missing something on the bear case? Is dilution worse than I think? Wait for Stillwater confirmation? **Position:** 257 shares at $16.58. Considering 500-1000 more to hit 5-7% of portfolio.