Charlie Munger always said: "Do inverse thinking" - Instead of focusing on what stocks to buy right now, what are the stocks you would definitely NOT buy right now? - And why?

u/Correct_Fall_5484 · Reddit — r/ValueInvesting · January 13, 2026 at 18:36 · 💬 148 comments  | View on Reddit ↗
AI Summary

Original Reddit post

Author applies Munger's inversion to argue against buying Exxon Mobil and Chevron because oil demand will decline over the next 20 years and oil prices are volatile and politically dependent.

XOM — AVOID The author argues Exxon Mobil should not be bought because the oil industry will slowly die within the next 20 years or at least become much less significant. Dividends from big oil are acknowledged but the author sees the end of the industry in sight. The author also cites oil price volatility and dependence on unpredictable politics as reasons to avoid.

For me it's Exxon Mobil / Chevron.

The oil industry will slowly die within the next 20 years, or at least become much less significant. Sure, you can get some dividends with big oil stocks, but the end is clearly in sight for this industry. Also, the price of oil is volatile and dependent on unpredictable politics.

CVX — AVOID The author argues Chevron should not be bought because the oil industry will slowly die within the next 20 years or at least become much less significant. Dividends from big oil are acknowledged but the author sees the end of the industry in sight. The author also cites oil price volatility and dependence on unpredictable politics as reasons to avoid.

For me it's Exxon Mobil / Chevron.

The oil industry will slowly die within the next 20 years, or at least become much less significant. Sure, you can get some dividends with big oil stocks, but the end is clearly in sight for this industry. Also, the price of oil is volatile and dependent on unpredictable politics.

Comments 148
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Ideas
u/Correct_Fall_5484 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Oil industry decline makes Exxon unattractive
The author argues Exxon Mobil should not be bought because the oil industry will slowly die within the next 20 years or at least become much less significant. Dividends from big oil are acknowledged but the author sees the end of the industry in sight. The author also cites oil price volatility and dependence on unpredictable politics as reasons to avoid.
u/Correct_Fall_5484 Reddit r/ValueInvesting
Oil industry decline makes Chevron unattractive
The author argues Chevron should not be bought because the oil industry will slowly die within the next 20 years or at least become much less significant. Dividends from big oil are acknowledged but the author sees the end of the industry in sight. The author also cites oil price volatility and dependence on unpredictable politics as reasons to avoid.
More from Reddit — r/ValueInvesting

This Reddit post, published January 13, 2026, features u/Correct_Fall_5484 discussing XOM, CVX. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: u/Correct_Fall_5484  · Tickers: XOM, CVX