Author cautions that retail buying of silver after its run to $40 signals weak investment philosophy and advises reconsidering exposure due to symmetric price risk and 28% tax on gains.
Unpriced research observations (excluded from Calls and Returns):
XAGUSD — AVOID The author argues that a sudden surge in silver buying by less affluent retail investors after silver crossed $40 is a warning sign that weak investment philosophy is being reflected in price. He advises reconsidering silver exposure because monetary policy is not as loose as 2018–2021 and silver gains face an inescapable 28% tax, creating headwinds. He sees roughly symmetric probabilities of further upside and a decline to $50, and urges investors to weigh opportunity cost and the impact of being wrong. Exact non-equity contract requires separate historical validation; no generic proxy.
the moment you hear of people that simply cannot afford to invest buying a particular asset and doing so in a large number, it’s time to reconsider your exposure.