Author is looking for housing-adjacent stock ideas to buy over the next few years, citing record-low home sales turnover and first-time buyer rates, and flags Wayfair as too expensive after a 155% run.
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2025 had low transaction volume for home sales, the lowest turnover rate in decades, and the lowest rate of first time buyers EVER.
With that being said I’m trying to land on a few housing adjacent plays to buy into in the next few years.
I had looked into companies like Wayfair, Stanley decker, shark ninja, RH, and whirlpool (basically any companies that potentially stand to benefit from more people buying homes).
One issue I have with Wayfair is it’s priced VERY high right now with a run up of $155% in the past year. Similarly shark ninja is a little bit pricey but undoubtedly has a solid and efficient business plan.
Any companies you would recommend diving deeper into? Fully expect that it’ll be a few years before sales volumes really pick up again, but would rather start thinking through which tickers are positioned to make the most out of home sales increasing from all time lows.
For reference you’ll see most of the stocks mentioned above had ATHs in 2020-2021; I don’t expect we’d see a buying season like that in at least the next ten years, BUT given a ton of these stocks tanked around low home sales and tariffs there is a run up they’d benefit from.