Short ALK thesis alleging loyalty-program account theft, a 10.40σ Q2 2025 accounting anomaly, unreconciled cash/asset movements, and T&C changes that shift fraud losses to customers.
Unpriced research observations (excluded from Calls and Returns):
ALK — SHORT Author shorts Alaska Air Group via put options, with returns tied to the underlying ALK shares rather than a premium-income option strategy. He argues the loyalty program's Q2 2025 10.40σ issuance-to-revenue anomaly, unreconciled Q2–Q3 balance sheet movements, persistent account theft, and T&C changes designed to limit victim reimbursement reveal structural failures. He filed an SEC whistleblower complaint and expects the issues to surface 'very soon,' pressuring the stock. ambiguous_option_contract
Alaska's loyalty programme economics produced a statistical impossibility in Q2 2025 2. Balance sheet movements in Q2-Q3 cannot be reconciled from public disclosures 3. Management has acknowledged the problem while implementing no meaningful fix 4. Legal terms are being rewritten to limit victim recourse 5. The underlying IT infrastructure has demonstrably failed multiple times this year