CAVA analysis finds strong unit economics and current valuation around fair value, with upside to $12B if store count accelerates to 3,000 by 2042.
CAVA — WATCH CAVA's return on incremental invested capital is about 14% and store-level EBITDA margins are about 25%, comparable to Chipotle. Management guides to 1,000 locations by 2032, and the author estimates a current valuation range of $6B to $10B, roughly fair value. If store growth accelerates to 3,000 locations by 2042, an upside valuation of $12B (about 50% rerating) is possible.
If I assume accelerated store count to 3,000 locations by 2042, then an upside valuation of $12B isn't out of the question. That would represent a 50% rerating upward from here.