Author describes a personal long-dated call options bet on Virgin Galactic with capped downside and large upside if company catalysts hit.
Unpriced research observations (excluded from Calls and Returns):
SPCE — LONG Author argues that buying long-dated call options on Virgin Galactic (SPCE) expiring January 21, 2028 offers an asymmetric payoff tied to the underlying stock. Near-term catalysts such as ticket sales reopening in 2-3 months, a new spaceship reveal, and commercial flights in about 9 months could drive the stock substantially above the break-even around $5-5.50. The option returns would track the underlying SPCE share price, and the main stated risk is the stock dropping to zero, which is limited to the $1,500 premium paid. ambiguous_option_contract
It’s about asymmetry: small, known downside vs. very large, uncapped upside.