Venezuela didn’t seem to affect the markets much, but I am worried about any escalation around Greenland — they’re owned by a NATO ally so a military action could effectively sever the alliance and change the global order significantly. The market doesn’t seem to be pricing any risk in.
The base case is that it will resolve peacefully, either by the US backing off from the claim or by striking some sort of business deal (which could be good for the markets) — but it feels like this could get worse before it gets better.
Am I being paranoid? How are you all thinking about geopolitical risk?