Author expresses skepticism that the S&P 500 can avoid mean reversion with CAPE above 40.
Unpriced research observations (excluded from Calls and Returns):
SPX — AVOID The author argues the S&P 500 is dangerously expensive, with the Shiller CAPE above 40 and far above its historical mean. He implies this valuation makes future returns unattractive. He asks for reasons why this time might be different but remains skeptical. Exact non-equity contract requires separate historical validation; no generic proxy.
The CAPE is too many standard deviations above the mean for me to believe.