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Hello everyone,
I am not a big fan of Trump, but I must admit he is racking up one victory after another. He managed to achieve a record GDP of 4.3% even though people were talking about a recession. He didn't cause inflation with the tariffs because, in the end, no country except China opposed his offensive.
But his greatest victories, and perhaps his greatest overal is having decimated Chinese influence around the world.
* **First, the tariffs:** Even though China stood its ground, the final result hasn't been great for them. While maintaining a still-high rate (50%), Trump only conceded to a slight reduction in tariffs in exchange for rare earth minerals, a decrease in tariffs on American products (30% or less), and massive purchases of soybeans. You might say tariffs are harmful to the US economy, but that’s false because China builds its growth on exports; if exports weaken or yield less money, their growth is affected. Therefore, they are weakened.
* **Weakening Russia-China trade:** The US has weakened trade between Russia and China with the latest sanctions on Russian oil. Chinese companies have had to curb imports to avoid the consequences of sanctions.
* **Venezuela:** This was one of the pillars for China and Russia in Latin America. It was also a country that had become very influential in the region thanks to social progress funded by oil. Chavez had succeeded in convincing Latin American countries to detach themselves from the US and build a stronger economic and social union, going as far as a project for a continental currency. However, in 2019, Trump decided to kill the Venezuelan currency by banning Venezuelan oil from the global market. With the oil unsellable, the currency no longer has any value. Considering that in 2017 the USA had already implemented sanctions to block imports by Venezuela, the country has simply had no way to function since 2019. China allowed the country to have the bare minimum and avoid a humanitarian crisis, but with this intervention, Venezuela will have to cut ties with China. China has likely lost its best ally. Then there are the financial consequences: they have to compensate for the loss of oil and figure out how to recover massive investments, to the point that there is talk of banks collapsing if they have to write them off...
* **Panama:** No one talks about it, but China just lost a major point of international trade overnight: the Panama Canal. It has moved to the American side, and China could do nothing to protect its interests.
* **TikTok:** We can also talk about TikTok, the only global social network that isn't American. The result: the US version will become American, and the USA intends to remove any "Chinese" presence from the new organization.
* **Europe:** European leaders are following Trump's lead by force. Today, Europe wants to curb Chinese imports, but they realized that Europeans don't have American salaries or technological independence... In trying to nationalize Nexperia, the Netherlands realized that China held the cards and had to back down. But Trump's real victory is the Port of Piraeus. He managed to get authorization from Greece to create a giant port to compete with the Chinese-held port. This is not a minor detail; this port is the main gateway to the European market. With this American port, direct competition will be imposed on the Chinese, and the Americans can play the political card to make it more attractive.
* **Iran:** One of China's major partners. Similarly, it is subject to US sanctions, though Iran has managed to get by by selling its oil both to China and other countries in the region. However, Trump clearly wants to end the regime and bring it over to the US side. China could simply end up isolated.
**Today, China is isolated:**
* Russia is becoming a burden.
* Venezuela is finished.
* Panama as well.
* Newly elected leaders in Latin America are all pro-US, or even anti-China.
* Vietnam and Southeast Asian countries are opening up more and more to the USA, whereas they used to be dependent on China.
* In Europe, they are becoming increasingly anti-China, whereas 15 years ago, they were praying for China to import Mercedes, BMWs, and other products.