The end of 2025 saw another strong year for US equities. Large cap and growth again led the way, with the Nasdaq 100 (+21.24% vs. +17.88% for S&P 500) again the winner among the benchmark indices. However, this year saw significant outperformance in both international developed (+31.85%) and emerging (+33.57%) markets. Precious metals such as gold (+64.33%) and silver (+145.88%) saw explosive returns not seen since 1979.
Not all risk assets performed strongly, as despite considerable tailwinds to start the year, Bitcoin (-6.18%) and Ethereum (-11.09%) ended 2025 in the negative. This year saw aggregate bonds (+7.08%) finally deliver solid returns with the US federal reserve cutting rates in the setting of labor market weakness.
|Index|Total Returns (2025)|
|:-|:-|
|S&P 500|\+17.88%|
|Nasdaq 100|\+21.24%|
|Russell 2000|\+12.81%|
|Dow Jones Industrial Average|\+14.92%|
|CRSP US Large Cap Growth|\+19.45%|
|CRSP US Large Cap Value|\+15.31%|
|CRSP US Small Cap Growth|\+8.57%|
|CRSP US Small Cap Value|\+9.16%|
|MSCI USA Index|\+17.31%|
|MSCI World ex-USA Index|\+31.85%|
|MSCI Emerging Markets Index|\+33.57%|
|MSCI ACWI ex-USA Index|\+32.39%|
|MSCI All Country World Index|\+22.34%|
|Gold|\+64.33%|
|Silver|\+145.88%|
|Bitcoin|(-6.18%)|
|Ethereum|(-11.09%)|
|Bonds|\+7.08%|
|Treasuries|\+4.27%|
As far as individual factors, despite all the talk about momentum driving US markets, it was growth that ended up leading the way, just as it has for much of the last 15 years. Internationally, in developed ex-US markets, value continued to massively outperform. However, despite the value premium historically being much stronger in emerging markets, in 2025, we saw this premium disappear--likely, this can be attributed to the rise of AI giants in China, Taiwan, and South Korea, which collectively make up nearly 60% of the MSCI Emerging Markets index.
|MSCI|Geography|Total|Growth|Value|Quality|Momentum|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|MSCI USA|United States|[\+17.31%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/984000)|[\+20.93%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/105825)|[\+12.97%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/105826)|[\+15.88%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/702789)|[\+17.34%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/703025)|
|MSCI World ex-USA|Developed ex-USA|[\+31.85%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/991000)|[\+21.94%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/105873)|[\+42.23%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/105874)|[\+20.79%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/703431)|[\+34.58%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/703841)|
|MSCI Emerging Markets|Emerging Markets|[\+33.57%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/891800)|[\+34.30%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/106062)|[\+32.74%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/106063)|[\+14.06%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/702788)|[\+28.92%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/703757)|
|MSCI All Country World|Global|[\+22.34%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/892400)|[\+22.44%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/106038)|[\+21.98%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/106039)|[\+18.10%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/702786)|[\+23.60%](https://www.msci.com/indexes/index/703026)|