Big Tech Earnings Season Begins, Will Semiconductor Stocks Soar?

Summary

Park Seung-young, Team Leader at Hanwha Investment & Securities, reviews Q2 big tech earnings and their implications for semiconductors. He sees Alphabet as a long-term buy on valuation despite momentum deceleration, recommends covered call ETFs on memory to harness falling volatility, and highlights cosmetics ODM and Korean autos as tariff-relief beneficiaries. He is cautious on physical AI near-term but bullish long-term, favors US equities over Korea on earnings momentum, and identifies a specific timing signal to buy Samsung Electronics and SK hynix when single-stock leveraged ETF market cap drops to 5 trillion won. Naver is flagged as a cheap value play and shipbuilders look attractive for Q4 entry ahead of Q1 order momentum.

• Alphabet’s cloud and capex outlook solid, but growth deceleration pressures short-term holders; long-term investors can buy at 22x P/E.
• Semiconductor memory demand supported by cloud capex, but risk of Chinese CXMT entering Apple’s iPhone supply chain remains a noise factor.
• Covered call ETFs on semiconductors are attractive now because implied volatility is extremely high and expected to decline.
• Physical AI/robotics is a long-duration theme that struggles when rates are high; long-term investors should use moderate position sizing.
• Cosmetics ODM stocks like Kolmar Korea benefit as tariff headwinds fade, while Korean autos are supported by strong domestic consumption.
• US equities have better earnings momentum than Korea through year-end; reduce Korean overweight and increase US allocation.
• Single-stock leveraged ETFs on Samsung Electronics and SK hynix total 9.6T won; a drop to 5T won would signal a better buying opportunity.
• Naver trades at 1x P/B after the Line divestiture and is now a value play; shipbuilders look good for entry in Q4 ahead of strong Q1 orders.