If the U.S. Does Not Bend, We Must Consider the Worst-Case Scenario Again... | Professor Park Hyun-do, Sogang University Euro-MENA Research Institute

Summary

Park Hyun-do, a professor at Sogang University's Euro-MENA Research Institute, argues that U.S.-Iran tensions remain dangerous despite talks, with Iran unlikely to back down unless the U.S. eases the Hormuz blockade. He warns that a U.S. attack could trigger Iranian retaliation against the Saudi East-West/Yanbu pipeline, removing about 9 million barrels per day and disrupting crude oil markets, while undersea fiber-optic cable cuts could paralyze regional communications and financial networks. The interview also covers stalled negotiations, Iranian leadership cohesion, the fragile Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, and the market risk from oil-supply disruption.

• Park sees no evidence of a decisive internal split in Iran; hardliners and the IRGC remain dominant.
• U.S.-Iran talks are stalled, with Iran demanding an end to the Hormuz blockade and release of frozen assets.
• Park believes Iran expects a U.S. military attack and is preparing for escalation.
• A key oil-market risk is Iranian retaliation against Saudi Arabia's East-West/Yanbu pipeline, potentially removing about 9 million barrels per day.
• Hormuz shipping is already disrupted by reciprocal seizures and near-zero tanker traffic.
• Iran has threatened to cut undersea fiber-optic cables, which could paralyze Middle East communications and financial networks.
• The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire was extended, but Israel is expected to keep attacking southern Lebanon.
• The main market takeaway is elevated oil-supply risk and higher geopolitical uncertainty.