The Nature of Trump's Diplomatic Strategy: Dismantling the Anti-US Alliance Rather Than Democracy | So Hyun-chul, Adjunct Professor at Sangji University

트럼프 외교 전략의 본질: 민주주의보다 ‘반미연대 해체’|소현철 상지대학교 외래교수 [심층인터뷰]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 20, 2026 at 11:05  |  1:00:48  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
So Hyeon-cheol — Adjunct Professor, Sangji University

Summary

In this interview, So Hyun-chul, an adjunct professor at Sangji University, argues that Trump's foreign policy is less about spreading democracy and more about dismantling the China-led anti-US alliance so the US can focus on containing China. He traces this through Ukraine, Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, Greenland, and the petrodollar, and concludes that US policy is trying to lower oil prices to reduce inflation, cut rates, and protect the dollar. For Korea, he expects lower oil, a stronger won, and a favorable stock-market environment.

  • Trump's strategy is framed as breaking the anti-US alliance to concentrate on China.
  • The US is seeking to end the Ukraine war and manage Venezuela, Iran, and North Korea through deals.
  • Lower oil is central to reducing US inflation, interest rates, and petrodollar risk.
  • Venezuela, Iran, and Russia are discussed as key oil-supply levers.
  • Greenland is interpreted as leverage over NATO and Europe, not a likely war.
  • China's Treasury selling and gold buying are described as a currency war.
  • For Korea, lower oil and a narrower rate gap could strengthen the won and help equities.
  • The guest sees market volatility from geopolitical noise as a potential opportunity.
Ideas
So Hyeon-cheol Adjunct Professor, Sangji University 29:35
Gulf refiners benefit from Venezuelan crude.
Texas/Gulf Coast refiners are configured to process heavy Venezuelan crude. If the US gains control of Venezuelan oil supply after removing Maduro, these refiners can secure feedstock they are optimized for, improving refining efficiency and utilization as part of the broader US push to control crude supply.
So Hyeon-cheol Adjunct Professor, Sangji University 39:39
Oil to fall below $50.
The US is trying to lower oil prices to reduce inflation, enable rate cuts, and protect the petrodollar. It is ending the Russia-Ukraine war and seeking influence over Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian crude supply; higher global supply should push WTI from around $58 toward the low $50s or below.
So Hyeon-cheol Adjunct Professor, Sangji University 40:04
Korean stocks favorable as oil falls.
Lower oil prices should reduce Korean inflation, support rate cuts, improve Korea's trade surplus, and help narrow the US-Korea rate gap. Combined with a stronger won, this creates a favorable environment for the Korean stock market.
So Hyeon-cheol Adjunct Professor, Sangji University 43:09
Won to strengthen below 1,400.
The won's weakness is mainly due to Korea's policy rate being more than 1.5 percentage points below the US rate. If oil falls and the US cuts rates toward or below 3% while Korea does not cut further, the rate gap narrows and Korea's trade surplus improves, supporting the won toward the low 1,400s per dollar or below.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 20, 2026, features So Hyeon-cheol discussing XLE, WTI, EWY, USD/KRW. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: So Hyeon-cheol  · Tickers: XLE, WTI, EWY, USD/KRW