FED QUER MUDAR TUDO: JUROS, INFLAÇÃO E EMPREGO

Summary

Fernando Ulrich analyzes the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates unchanged and the radical communication overhaul under new Chair Kevin Warsh. The removal of forward guidance and announcement of five reform task forces triggered a hawkish market reaction, sending stocks lower, the dollar and Treasury yields higher, and shifting rate hike expectations to December. Ulrich views the changes as long-term positive but warns of near-term volatility, deferring a Brazil impact analysis to his subscriber session.

• Fed held rates at 3.5-3.75% and scrapped forward guidance, signaling a new communication regime.
• Kevin Warsh outlined five task forces to review Fed communication, balance sheet, data, productivity, and inflation framework.
• The S&P 500 fell, the DXY broke above a multi-year ceiling, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.50%.
• Market pricing shifted to a 25-50bp rate hike by December 2025, reflecting a hawkish repricing.
• Warsh declined to submit his own economic projections, altering the dot plot.
• Ulrich sees the overhaul as a positive for the Fed’s credibility despite short-term turbulence.
• Future press conferences may be less frequent to reduce market overinterpreting Fed signals.
• Brazil implications will be discussed in a separate subscriber-only session.