Risk Signals Are All On, Yet Stocks Held Up… The '100' Change That Saved the Market | Hong Seon-ae, Jang Woo-jin, CEO of Geumsigong

Summary

Jang Woo-jin, CEO of Geumsigong, joins Hong Seon-ae to review a week in which major risk signals were close to triggering but stocks held up because oil eased. He argues the market is not yet ready for a full-blown liquidity-driven rally and recommends holding some cash before Chuseok and the September 24 US-China summit. He still sees AI and semiconductor capex as the main investment theme, while power shortages make on-site generation a key bottleneck and opportunity.

• US 10-year yield near 5%, dollar index near 100, and oil above 100 were the main risk signals.
• Oil eased on Saudi pipeline recovery and reports of Chinese pressure on Iran and the Houthis, but low distillate inventories and high diesel prices remain risks.
• The Fed's 25bp hike and the Bank of Japan's 25bp hike were absorbed without major market disruption; US growth, retail sales, and jobless claims remain strong.
• AI capex remains the main theme; Nvidia's next-generation GPU sales are expected to double next year.
• Power shortages are a key AI bottleneck; on-site generation is favored first, and Amazon's backup-generator deal with Generac drew attention.
• The speaker advises keeping cash into Chuseok and the US-China summit because positive expectations may reverse.