Bernstein's Rasgon: Nvidia's numbers should be good, looking for commentary on Rubin ramp

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  August 21, 2026 at 22:09  |  4:59  |  CNBC
Speakers
Stacy Rasgon — Senior Analyst, U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Bernstein Research

Summary

Bernstein senior analyst Stacy Rasgon previews Nvidia's upcoming earnings. He expects strong numbers as the company enters its next-generation Rubin cycle, with potential data-center revenue upside and gross margins holding in the mid-70s. He also highlights Nvidia's financing backstops for data-center projects as a strategic advantage and notes the stock has begun to outperform the SOX after a period of underperformance. The main market implication is a bullish Nvidia setup tied to the next product cycle.

  • Nvidia reports earnings next Wednesday.
  • Numbers are expected to be very good entering the Rubin cycle.
  • $1 trillion over three years implies about $500 billion in data center revenue next year.
  • Gross margin in the mid-70s likely needs confirmation.
  • Financing backstops for data center projects are a strategic balance-sheet advantage.
  • Nvidia has begun outperforming the SOX over the last month.
  • Next product cycles tend to be good for Nvidia stock.
Ideas
Stacy Rasgon Senior Analyst, U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Bernstein Research 0:21
Nvidia earnings strong; Rubin cycle starting.
Nvidia's upcoming earnings should be very good as it enters the Rubin cycle; management has already given growth color through this year and next, with the $1 trillion over three years implying close to $500 billion in data center revenue next year, and build plans make higher numbers plausible. He also wants confirmation that gross margins can hold in the mid-70s despite memory and wafer pricing pressure.
NVDA HIGH
Stacy Rasgon Senior Analyst, U.S. Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, Bernstein Research 4:12
Nvidia reversal versus SOX may continue.
Nvidia has begun to reverse last year's underperformance: over the last month the SOX index is down about 5% while Nvidia is up 4-5%, and that relative reversal may continue because Nvidia is starting its next product cycle, which tends to be good for the stock.
SOXX MED
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This CNBC video, published August 21, 2026, features Stacy Rasgon discussing NVDA, SOXX. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Stacy Rasgon  · Tickers: NVDA, SOXX