BlackRock's Rosenberg says inflation could actually be peaking in recent data
Speakers
Jeffrey Rosenberg
— Senior Portfolio Manager, BlackRock
Summary
Jeff Rosenberg of BlackRock discusses inflation possibly peaking and its implications for bond yields. He favors the belly of the curve while warning that long-end Treasuries face upward pressure from fiscal deficits. The curve is expected to steepen.
- Inflation may be at a peak, with core PCE improving.
- Tariff inflation is receding; oil pass-through is a key uncertainty.
- The Fed is likely on hold, neither cutting nor hiking.
- Short-term yields are driven by headline inflation data.
- Long-term yields face upward pressure from secular fiscal deficits (AI, energy, reshoring).
- The belly of the curve (intermediate Treasuries) offers fair risk-return.
- The 10s30s Treasury spread should widen (curve steepening).
- Corporate bonds are viewed as less risky than government bonds in current conditions.
Trade Ideas
Long belly, avoid long-end Treasuries.
Inflation may be peaking as core PCE and underlying measures improve, tariff inflation recedes, and oil pass-through is uncertain. Near-term inflation uncertainty is pricing fair risk into intermediate Treasuries (belly of curve), making them attractive on a risk-return basis. However, long-dated Treasuries face additional upward pressure from secular fiscal deficits driven by AI, energy, and global reshoring, which should raise term premium and cause yields to rise further. Therefore, investors should favor the belly of the curve versus the long end, and the 10s30s spread should widen.
Long belly, avoid long-end Treasuries.
Inflation may be peaking as core PCE and underlying measures improve, tariff inflation recedes, and oil pass-through is uncertain. Near-term inflation uncertainty is pricing fair risk into intermediate Treasuries (belly of curve), making them attractive on a risk-return basis. However, long-dated Treasuries face additional upward pressure from secular fiscal deficits driven by AI, energy, and global reshoring, which should raise term premium and cause yields to rise further. Therefore, investors should favor the belly of the curve versus the long end, and the 10s30s spread should widen.
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This CNBC video, published May 13, 2026, features Jeffrey Rosenberg discussing TLT, 10-Year US Treasury, 5-Year US Treasury. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jeffrey Rosenberg · Tickers: TLT, 10-Year US Treasury, 5-Year US Treasury