Growth Rate Decrease? It Won't End Until 2028… Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's Real Growth Story 'Big Untapped Opportunities Remain' | Noh Geun-chang, Head of Research

Summary

Noh Geun-chang, Head of Research at Hyundai Motor Securities, argues that the recent sell-off in Korean memory stocks Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is due to temporary supply factors, not fundamental deterioration. He presents a detailed structural growth thesis for memory semiconductors, driven by AI data centers, HBM, and custom DRAM, with tight supply and long-term contracts ensuring earnings growth through 2028. He dismisses peak-cycle fears and sees sustained valuation re-rating as EPS continues to rise.

• Samsung and SK Hynix shares fell sharply despite record Q2 earnings due to SK Hynix ADR arbitrage, sector rotation, and peak margin concerns, but Noh sees these as transient.
• He models DRAM bit growth of ~20% and ASP increases through 2028, with HBM4 and NVIDIA's Rubin GPU driving a new demand surge from Q3 2026.
• Long-term contracts and customized products (HBM, SOCAMM) have structurally changed the memory cycle, making past 'peak followed by price drop' patterns less likely.
• Supply remains tight as equipment shortages limit capacity expansion; Kioxia projects supply shortage through Q4 2027.
• Valuation multiples are declining as earnings grow, with Samsung's P/E around 6x and SK Hynix below 7x, which could eventually lead to multiple expansion.
• He cautions that humanoid robots are not yet a meaningful demand driver, but Tesla's AI5 chip with 192GB GDDR per car could become a catalyst by 2028.
• The interview advises not to blindly trust foreign broker downgrades that aim to induce trading and to focus on long-term fundamentals.