It will go up to here, take a look | Kim Rok-ho, Team Lead, Hana Securities Research Center

Summary

Kim Rok-ho, Team Lead at Hana Securities Research Center, discusses the sharp rally in Samsung Electronics and SK hynix and argues the memory upcycle is supported by stronger-than-expected DRAM pricing and limited supply through 1H 2027. He highlights HBM as a structural cycle-breaker and AI inference as a new driver of server DRAM demand. He gives target prices of KRW 222,000 for Samsung and KRW 1,300,000 for SK hynix, while cautioning that semiconductor equipment and materials stocks need selectivity after their recent rally.

• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix surged, with Samsung's 11% gain described as first since 2008.
• Memory supply is expected to remain constrained until 1H next year, supporting the upcycle through 1H 2027 if demand holds.
• Q1 DRAM price increases are tracking stronger than the analyst's expectations.
• HBM is viewed as structural and less cyclical because of separate customer contracts and pricing.
• AI inference is driving exponential data growth and structural demand for server DRAM.
• Samsung target price is KRW 222,000; SK hynix target price is KRW 1,300,000.
• New memory capex at Samsung P4 and SK hynix M15X benefits equipment and materials, but recent broad gains create valuation risk.
• Chinese memory expansion by CXMT and YMTC is not expected to contribute meaningful supply until after 2H 2027.