Name: POR QUE O DINHEIRO ESTRANGEIRO ESTÁ VOLTANDO PARA O BASIL EM 2026?
Uploaded: 2026-02-04T01:00:34+00:00
Duration: 951 s

Speakers

Matheus Soares — Analista responsável pela carteira de ações do Market Makers

Matheus Spiess — Analista, Empíricus Research

Summary

The episode discusses the strong January for Brazilian and emerging-market assets, driven by roughly US$5 billion of foreign inflows into Brazil and a broader rotation away from US assets. The speakers explain the Debasement Trade and desdolarization, linking it to US rate cuts, fiscal crises, and geopolitical shifts. They see a structural, still-early cycle favoring emerging markets, a weaker dollar, and real assets such as gold, silver, and copper.

January saw strong performance across emerging markets, with EWZ up 19% and Brazil receiving about US$5 billion in foreign inflows.
The Debasement Trade is described as a rotation from fiat currencies and sovereign debt into real assets and alternatives.
Speakers attribute dollar weakness to US rate cuts, fiscal problems, policy signals, and loss of confidence in US leadership.
Gold is highlighted for central-bank reserve buying and safe-haven diversification after Russia sanctions.
US Treasuries are seen as losing their safest-asset status due to fiscal and institutional credibility issues.
Brazil and broader emerging markets are viewed as early beneficiaries of a possible long positive cycle.
Reindustrialization and Davos discussions are cited as signs of a changing geopolitical and global trade regime.

Ideas

Matheus Soares Analista responsável pela carteira de ações do Market Makers 0:45

Foreign inflows and rate cuts lift Brazil

Foreign capital is returning to Brazil, with about US$5 billion entering in January after similar 2025 inflows, part of a broader rotation into emerging markets and real assets. Brazil also benefits from expected local interest-rate cuts and is seen favorably by foreign investors, so the flow-driven positive cycle may be just beginning.

Matheus Spiess Analista, Empíricus Research 2:57

Debasement trade favors real assets

The Debasement Trade is a structural rotation out of fiat currencies and sovereign debt into real assets, triggered by a credibility rupture in fiat money, fiscal problems globally, and institutional shocks. This favors real assets and alternatives, with silver and copper among the specific commodities mentioned as beneficiaries.

Matheus Spiess Analista, Empíricus Research 3:12

Short dollar on structural debasement

The US dollar is in a structural weakening trend as investors reduce exposure to fiat currencies and US assets. US interest-rate cuts reduce the dollar's yield advantage, fiscal problems and policy signals such as Trump's pressure and the Mar-a-Lago accord point to deliberate dollar devaluation, and desdolarization is a secular trend despite periodic reversals.

Matheus Spiess Analista, Empíricus Research 5:34

Gold benefits from debasement and central banks

Gold is a key beneficiary of the debasement trade. Central banks are increasing gold reserves, investors are losing confidence in US Treasuries after the confiscation of Russian assets, and the move into gold is broadening from central banks and large institutions to retail investors, suggesting the trend is still early.

Matheus Spiess Analista, Empíricus Research 9:54

US Treasuries lose safe-haven status

US Treasuries have lost their status as the safest asset. Confiscation of Russian reserves, fiscal crises in developed countries, and the near-collapse of the UK gilt market show that even major sovereign debt can become risky, leading investors to diversify away from US Treasuries.

Matheus Soares Analista responsável pela carteira de ações do Market Makers 12:48

Emerging markets begin long positive cycle

Emerging markets, after 15 years of underperformance, are at the beginning of a long positive cycle driven by global capital rotation away from US assets, a weaker dollar, and foreign institutional inflows; Brazil is included, but the benefit extends across emerging-market equities.

POR QUE O DINHEIRO ESTRANGEIRO ESTÁ VOLTANDO PARA O BASIL EM 2026?

Summary

Ideas

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