Watch CNBC's full interview with TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné

Summary

• TotalEnergies has 15% of global production shut in due to Iran crisis, but current oil prices at ~$100/bbl ($40 above planned $60/bbl) fully offset the loss.
• Oil products market is dislocated: jet fuel at ~$200/bbl, diesel at ~$160/bbl, with refining margins at ~$30/bbl due to ~20% reduction in international trade from Strait closure and China's export ban.
• Systemic risk: High energy prices could impact global economy, with potential shift from gas to coal (as in 2022) and limited alternatives for oil, affecting fertilizer and food prices.
• LNG supply disruption: 20% of world LNG market (84M tons from Qatar) stranded; current prices at $20/mmBTU could rise to $30-$40 if conflict persists into summer, similar to 2022 spike.
• TotalEnergies navigates LNG disruption by substituting Qatar volumes with US supply, avoiding force majeure and maintaining customer commitments.
• US offshore wind deal: TotalEnergies returned licenses, recouped $930M from DOI, and will reinvest in US energy, focusing on LNG and gas assets.
• Offshore wind in US deemed unaffordable at ~$150/MWh, considered a marginal technology due to abundant land, cheap gas/coal, and cost-effective onshore renewables.
• Policy instability in US energy sector challenges investment, but pragmatic negotiations with administration can yield win-win outcomes, potentially for other companies.
• Growing data center and AI demand driving direct partnerships with hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Microsoft), validating TotalEnergies' strategy in electricity generation and trading.
• TotalEnergies balances oil/gas and electricity pillars, leveraging integrated portfolio to meet new energy demands from technology sectors.