Stocks Gain as Tech Holds Up; Bonds Steady | The Close 2/17/2026
Speakers
Christina Minnis — Global Head of Alternative Origination Group, Goldman Sachs
— Chopping Block co-host
Chris Palmeri — Team Leader, Media & Entertainment, Bloomberg
— Chopping Block co-host
Christina Lee — Co-Portfolio Manager, Oaktree Capital Management
— Chopping Block co-host
Lilya Tessler — Head of Global Fintech, Sidley Austin
— Chopping Block co-host
Summary
- AI Productivity Paradox: The Fed (Daly) acknowledges productivity is rising (2.7% - 3%) potentially due to AI, but it is unclear if this is a permanent trend or a one-time efficiency adjustment. This creates a "two-handed" economy where AI could be disinflationary (productivity) or inflationary (investment demand).
- The "Hard Asset" Rotation: Investors are rotating out of "safe haven" software stocks into "companies that make stuff" (Industrials) due to fears of AI disruption eroding software moats.
- Consumer Bifurcation: High-end consumers remain resilient. Chipotle notes 60% of sales come from higher-income guests, and fine dining (Union Square Hospitality) is the strongest segment. Conversely, fast-food/lower-end remains challenged by affordability.
- Private Credit Warning: Oaktree notes a "higher bar" for lending to software companies in private credit, specifically avoiding "coding companies" or single-point solutions that AI could easily displace.
- Media M&A Heating Up: A bidding war is re-emerging for Paramount, with Warner Bros. Discovery and Netflix circling, driven by the need for consolidation.
Trade Ideas
Minnis highlights the "$5 trillion" AI investment need and notes that "all that capital has to get raised." She cites a specific deal financing energy for data centers using a mix of asset-based loans and high-yield bonds. While tech companies spend the money, Investment Banks (like Goldman) and Private Credit structure the deals. The massive capex cycle for AI infrastructure (energy, data centers) is a direct revenue driver for origination and capital solutions desks. Long GS as a pick-and-shovel play on AI financing. Deal flow drying up if the AI capex bubble bursts.
Maalouf notes a "record over 440 hotel openings" and bullishness on US 2026 due to the World Cup. Wade (Union Square Hospitality) confirms "fine dining... is the strongest segment" and corporate event business is up. Travel and high-end leisure are decoupling from the broader goods economy. Major events (World Cup) and corporate return-to-office/entertaining are structural tailwinds for 2026. Long Hospitality/Travel. A sharp recession curbing discretionary travel.
Warner Bros. Discovery is "officially reopening sale talks" with Paramount after a sweetened offer. Netflix has also given WBD "seven days to discuss" a counter-bid involving assets. The media sector is entering a chaotic consolidation phase. While M&A usually boosts the target (PARA), the complexity of the deal structures (debt loads, asset spin-offs) makes the outcome binary and volatile. Watch for the winner of the Paramount assets; arbitrage opportunities may arise. Regulatory blocking of mergers; deal talks falling apart.
13F filings show Tiger Global "slashed their stake in Microsoft 14%" and trimmed Amazon and Meta. Conversely, Soros "boosted their stake in Microsoft." "Smart money" is diverging. The Tiger Global exit suggests valuation concerns or profit-taking after a massive run, while Soros suggests continued momentum. This lack of consensus signals a potential plateau or rotation phase for Mega-Cap Tech. Neutral/Hold; follow the rotation into laggards rather than chasing these highs. Missed upside if AI mania continues unabated.
Biel argues software businesses that are just "optimizing" or "automating" without proprietary data are "ripe for disruption." Lee (Oaktree) adds that private credit has a "much higher bar" for software, specifically avoiding "coding companies" that can be displaced by AI. The "AI Scare Trade" is real. Companies that previously enjoyed "safe haven" status are now viewed as at-risk of obsolescence. If private credit pulls back lending to these firms, their liquidity and growth stifle. Avoid generic/legacy software stocks. AI adoption might be slower than expected, allowing legacy tech to adapt.
Biel states investors have "gotten a bit burned by long-standing software names" and are recognizing they "want to own hard assets, companies that make stuff." There is a capital rotation occurring away from digital/software assets (due to AI disruption fears) toward cyclical upswings in the real economy and "tools providers" in healthcare that are insulated from binary regulatory risks. Long "Hard Assets" and non-binary Healthcare. Economic slowdown dampening cyclical demand.
Julie Biel
Portfolio Manager, Kayne Anderson Rudnick
Biel notes that regional banks did not participate in the rally last year but now have an opportunity to improve due to "deregulation" and the ability to "do more with the balance sheets." If regulatory pressure eases and consolidation occurs (which Biel expects), regional banks can regain profitability and market share, trading at attractive multiples compared to large caps. Long Regional Banks as a deregulation/catch-up trade. Continued commercial real estate exposure and high interest rates.
Adam Rymer
CFO, Chipotle Mexican Grill
CFO Rymer states new restaurants are opening at "80% of the volume of existing restaurants" with "cash on cash returns north of 60%." He also notes strength in "higher income guests which is about 60% of sales." Despite the narrative of a weak consumer, Chipotle's specific demographic (higher income) is resilient. The unit economics (60% returns) justify continued aggressive expansion (350-370 new stores). Long CMG on execution and demographic resilience. Rising input costs (beef/avocados) pushing inflation back to 3-4%.
Up Next
This Bloomberg Markets video, published February 17, 2026, features Christina Minnis, Elie Maalouf, Chris Palmeri, Hema Parmar, Julie Biel, Adam Rymer discussing GS, IHG, PEJ, PARA, WBD, NFLX, MSFT, AMZN, META, IGV, XLI, XLV, KRE, CMG. 8 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Christina Minnis, Elie Maalouf, Chris Palmeri, Hema Parmar, Julie Biel, Adam Rymer · Tickers: GS, IHG, PEJ, PARA, WBD, NFLX, MSFT, AMZN, META, IGV, XLI, XLV, KRE, CMG