Liquidity Gap Until Early October, This Correction Is an Opportunity | ABP Asset Management Executive Director Seong Sang-hyeon & Chesley Investment Advisory Executive Director Park Se-ik

Summary

Seong Sang-hyeon of ABP Asset Management argues that the world is shifting from a 40-year low-growth, low-rate bond bull market into a long-term growth cycle driven by AI capex, government deficit spending, and eventually private bank credit creation. He sees the September-to-early-October TGA rebuilding as a temporary liquidity drain, making any correction a buying opportunity, and expects long-term rates to stabilize. The discussion also flags semiconductors, power/nuclear, AI agents, humanoid robots, and bank deregulation as key investment themes, while treating tokenization and named capex examples as less actionable.

• High rates have not stopped investment; the cycle is K-shaped rather than broad multiple expansion.
• AI capex and government deficit spending are shifting excess savings into real investment.
• Future liquidity is expected to come from bank credit creation and deregulation, not only Fed QE.
• September to early October faces a TGA-driven liquidity gap; the speaker calls the correction an opportunity.
• Semiconductors and power/nuclear are seen as leadership areas that remain intact despite volatility.
• AI agents and humanoid robots are viewed as the eventual productivity endpoint, not an immediate trade.
• The 10-year Treasury yield often peaks in early October, supporting a duration setup.
• Tokenization and named capex examples like Sanil Electric and Eaton were not given independent actionable edges.