The Bitcoin Setup Right Now Looks NOTHING Like Previous Cycles w/ Matt Crosby
Speakers
Matt Crosby
— Co-host, The Cryptoverse
Summary
Matt Crosby from Bitcoin Magazine Pro argues that Bitcoin's current setup is fundamentally different from prior cycles, with institutional demand, ETF accumulation, and shrinking supply creating an asymmetric opportunity. He sees a high probability that the bottom is in, though summer choppiness is likely, and targets $103,321 by November 2026.
- Bitcoin's price action compared to previous cycles shows difference due to ETF and institutional demand.
- Over 80% of Bitcoin circulating supply is held by long-term holders, reducing available supply.
- ETF holdings have recovered to near all-time highs despite a 50% price drop.
- Retail sentiment is extremely bearish, which historically has been a contrarian bullish indicator.
- Matt sees asymmetric upside opportunity at current ~$80k level.
- He expects a summer lull with choppy price action, then a rally towards $100k+ by year end.
- Global M2 and Fed balance sheet expansion support further upside.
- He gives a specific target of $103,321 for November 2026.
Trade Ideas
BTC asymmetric opportunity at current levels
Bitcoin (BTC) has an asymmetric upside opportunity around current levels (~$80k) because the supply is shrinking (over 80% held by long-term holders, 95% already in circulation), institutional demand via ETFs is strong (ETF holdings have recovered to near all-time highs despite the 50% drawdown), retail sentiment is extremely bearish (a contrarian bullish signal), and global monetary expansion (Fed balance sheet, rising M2) provides tailwinds. Price capitulation has already occurred relative to silver and gold. The probability of a lower low below $60k is less than 50%, and any pullback to the $70-75k range is an aggressive buying opportunity. He targets Bitcoin at $103,321 by November 2026.
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This Milk Road Macro video, published May 08, 2026, features Matt Crosby discussing BTC. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Matt Crosby · Tickers: BTC