Matt Crosby

Bitcoin (BTC) has an asymmetric upside opportunity around current levels (~$80k) because the supply is shrinking (over 80% held by long-term holders, 95% already in circulation), institutional demand via ETFs is strong (ETF holdings have recovered to near all-time highs despite the 50% drawdown), retail sentiment is extremely bearish (a contrarian bullish signal), and global monetary expansion (Fed balance sheet, rising M2) provides tailwinds. Price capitulation has already occurred relative to silver and gold. The probability of a lower low below $60k is less than 50%, and any pullback to the $70-75k range is an aggressive buying opportunity. He targets Bitcoin at $103,321 by November 2026.

Extreme consumer sentiment (lowest ever) and record put volumes on SPY and QQQ are contrarian signals that have historically marked major equity market lows. Every time consumer sentiment bottomed out it was a great accumulation opportunity for the S&P 500, and record put volume has been a market low without exception.

Extreme consumer sentiment (lowest ever) and record put volumes on SPY and QQQ are contrarian signals that have historically marked major equity market lows. Every time consumer sentiment bottomed out it was a great accumulation opportunity for the S&P 500, and record put volume has been a market low without exception.