Iran Sanctions Losing Efficacy

Summary

Daniel Tannebaum discusses why lifting Iran sanctions is complex and unlikely to quickly revive business engagement. He explains that even if some sanctions are removed, lingering money laundering risks, terror designations, lack of banking infrastructure, and geopolitical unpredictability will keep global firms away. He also argues sanctions have lost efficacy and were largely replaced by kinetic warfare in this conflict.

• Sanctions relief requires time, congressional steps, and cannot be flipped like a switch; the 2015 JCPoA took 20 months to negotiate.
• Global banks refused to touch Iran after the 2015 deal and will likely do so again, leaving no financing for trade.
• Iran's state-sponsor-of-terror designation imposes separate, harder-to-lift sanctions.
• Even if sanctions are lifted, businesses are not interested: Iran is not a ripe market and the risks are too great.
• Commerce through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed, illustrating the lack of predictability.
• Sanctions efficacy has eroded over time; kinetic warfare has become the primary tool in this conflict.