FX Shock Also Dampens Economic Sentiment... What Is the Strategy to Avoid the Worst-Case Scenario? | YouTube 'Kim Jun-song TV' CEO Kim Jun-song

Summary

Kim Jun-song, CEO of Kim Jun-song TV, argues that the Korean won is more likely to weaken than stabilize because global dollar strength and structural Korean capital outflows will persist. He expects USD/KRW to trade between roughly 1,430 and 1,600 this year, with dollar strength as his preferred bet. He also argues that a weak won can support Korean exporters and the KOSPI, citing Japan's weak-yen equity rally and a potential KOSPI 5,000 level if USD/KRW reaches 1,600. He criticizes short-term FX policy measures as ineffective.

• Kim Jun-song expects USD/KRW to stay elevated or rise, with a floor near 1,430 and upside to 1,550-1,600.
• He argues global dollar weakness forecasts are unreliable due to US exceptionalism and AI investment flows to the US.
• He sees Korean individual and corporate capital outflows as a structural trend that limits won strength.
• He says Bank of Korea defense of the 1,450 level is not sustainable indefinitely.
• He views a weak won as positive for Korean exporters and the KOSPI, citing Japan's weak-yen experience.
• He identifies Samsung Electronics and SK hynix as the main Korean export leaders benefiting from semiconductor exports.
• He warns that a weaker won hurts importers and can raise inflation pressures.
• He criticizes short-term FX policy measures as ineffective and calls for more fundamental liberalization.